TRACKERS

Posted at 1:26 p.m. ET

Both trackers are now out for today.  As reported earlier, Rasmussen has the race tied, but reports a trend toward Obama in the last two nights of polling.

However, Gallup is already reporting a sizable bump for Obama.  Gallup had Obama up one yesterday, but has him up six points today.

There is no need to panic.  Indeed, I would expect Obama's bump to grow, even to ten or twelve points.  This is fairly normal for conventions, and we must cautiously assume that the McCain convention next week will reverse the tide.  I stress "assume."  It hasn't happened yet.

We should also note that Gallup polls registered voters, whereas Rasmussen polls likely voters. 

Because of the conventions, I don't think the polls will settle down until mid-September.  Until then, we'll have to ride the roller coaster.

August 28, 2008.